Ein dynamisches Simulationsmodell als Beitrag zur post-normal Science


Post-normal Science is an attempt developed by Funtowicz and Ravetz (1991, 1992, 1993) as a response to the ‘normal’ science. The authors state that normal science becomes inadequate where “…facts are uncertain, values in dispute, stakes high and decisions urgent” (Funtowicz & Ravetz 1993: 744). These situations, called post-normal situations, need a new scientific approach. The conventional approach to split up systems into specific disciplines by studying their behaviour separately and then trying to merge the different pieces into one, hoping for one final solution for the problem, becomes inappropriate. Therefore, science requires a new intention: instead of solely producing knowledge, solutions must be found in a transdisciplinary way, involving stakeholders. Communication and negotiation processes are seen as necessary components of this new scientific attempt. A sub-project of Coastal Futures focuses on the development of a dynamic simulation model to support planning decisions for the future development in coastal regions. The model serves as a tool for local and regional decision-makers in the coastal region of North Frisia, which helps to visualize and discuss the possible impact of demographic change in their region. It is not supposed to be used as a forecast for regional development; it should rather be understood as a communication tool. The concept of the model allows various users to create their own scenarios. These scenarios will differ, based on the different inputs made by the users. Subsequent, the outcome of the model can be discussed among the different users. Interpreting and discussing the different scenarios can help to improve the quality of decision making. Overall the aim of the model is to allow a new perspective on demographic change and to offer a more sustainable way of dealing with the issue on a regional scale.
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