Climatic threats determining future adaptive forest management – A case study of Zala County
AbstractResearch of future climate tendencies is a precondition for appropriate climate change adaptation strategies in forestry and agriculture. The aim of this paper is to investigate the expected probability and magnitude of threatening climate conditions that are of primary importance in terms of forest management. Until 2100, precipitation and temperature results of an ensemble of 12 regional climate model simulations as well as derived indicators (e.g., Forestry Aridity Index and Ellenberg’s climate quotient) have been analyzed for the A1B emission scenario. For the case study area in Southwest Hungary (Zala County), projections indicate an increasing tendency of warming and drying of summers towards the end of the 21st century. In the period 2071–2100, decrease of summer precipitation sum may exceed 25% compared to 1981–2010. Both extreme droughts and heavy precipitation events are expected to be more frequent. Consequently, the already observed climate change impacts and damages in forestry are very likely to occur with higher probability and severity. Including these results, a GIS-based “Agroclimate” decision support system is under development that contains a coherent data chain from climate change simulations, through impact assessments to adaptation support in order to provide quantified information on the possible yield potential and production risk for sustainable forest management.