Publication

User tailored results of a regional climate model ensemble to plan adaption to the changing climate in Germany

Abstract

High resolution climate information from a multi model ensemble is required for the development and the plan-ning of measures to adapt to changing climate (e.g. German Adaptation Strategy). Assuming different emissionscenarios, using a multi model ensembles and multi downscaling methods is essential to achieve information onpossible ranges of future climate change for climate impact research and as background information for policyand economy.To achieve this, a set of dynamical and statistical downscaling experiments has been added to the Euro-CORDEXensemble by the German research project ReKliEs-De (Regional Climate change Ensemble simulations forGermany). Altogether 37 Simulations using RCP8.5 and 14 Simulations using RCP2.6 are analyzed from thecombined EURO-CORDEX and ReKliEs-De Ensemble. The dynamical simulations cover the EURO-CORDEXdomain, the statistical simulations cover Germany and the catchments of large rivers draining into Germany. Allsimulation results are provided on the standard EURO CORDEX grid with 0.11° horizontal resolution. 24 climateindices have been analyzed in ReKliEs-De to quantify the differences in mean and extreme climate quantitiesbetween the two scenarios in consideration of the bandwidth of climate change signals due to the deviating modelperformances. The analysis concentrates on Germany and the major river catchments draining into Germany.The assessment of data and information needs of users will be introduced, which formed the basis of the usertailoring of the project result. The calculated climate indices will be presented and how condensed information ofthe range of possible changes in mean and extreme climate can fulfil the requirements of users.
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